Market Outlooks

Market Outlook Starting in the first century, Roman Emperors needed more money to fund the Empire’s military and government budgets.  Over the next 200 years, five emperors starting with Nero (54 – 68 AD) and ending with Gallienus (253 – 268 AD), debased the realm’s currency – the denarius – by almost 99% as 100…

Market Outlook The 2023 Lunar New Year is the Year of the Rabbit which symbolizes longevity, peace and prosperity in Chinese culture.  In fact, the rabbit is said to be the luckiest of the 12 animals.  Based upon our reading of economic research and certain 2023 forecasts, we believe that we will need more than…

Market Outlook In late October 1991, the fishing boat Andrea Gail set sail from Gloucester, Massachusetts only to be engulfed and destroyed by a late cycle unnamed hurricane which became known as the Perfect Storm, whose ferocious conditions produced 100-foot waves.  Several economic journalists have recently invoked the “Perfect Storm” metaphor when describing current economic…

Market Outlook Some of you may remember the classic daytime game show “Let’s Make A Deal” which aired on NBC from 1963 to 1977.  Contestants selected one of three doors in hopes of winning a grand prize.  The game host (many will remember Monty Hall) reveals one door behind which there is no grand prize…

Market Outlook The economic storm clouds on the horizon reported in the news and on social media conjure up the metaphor of “storm watching” when allocating assets in today’s financial markets.  Erik Larson’s historical novel, Isaac’s Storm:  A Man, A Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History, recounts the failed forecasting and monitoring of the…

Market Outlook We expect 2022 to be a very interesting year from a markets perspective, primarily because the Fed has the unenviable task of taming, what has turned out not to be, “transitory inflation.”  Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, came in at 7% in 2021 which is the highest recorded level since…

Market Outlook Do you think Milton Friedman is regaining some respect at the Federal Reserve and among Modern Monetary Theorists as the +30% rise in M2 appears to be fueling an increase in inflation?  Our January 2021 Cassia Capital Partners newsletter led with a shout out about M2 growth and the linkage between liquidity and…

Market Outlook Although we are returning to normalcy in our daily routines, resuming travel for summer holidays, and hopefully putting COVID-19 lockdowns behind us, it is worth noting that our current economic recovery is anything but normal.  Thankfully, growth in the United States and globally is surging in somewhat of a synchronized manner as we…

Market Outlook The financial markets are floating in a “sea of liquidity” these days, enjoying the calming effects of low interest rates, low inflation, mobility returning to the economy, COVID vaccinations, and corporate earnings rocking analyst forecasts.  Furthermore, GDP forecasts for the US this year are in the +6% to +7% range.  Fed Chairman Jay…

Market Outlook In 1992 James Carville was credited with coining the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” to highlight a key factor driving opinion in the Presidential election of that year. In a similar fashion for 2021, one might summarize the primary factor impacting financial markets as “it’s all about the liquidity.” While this is an…