January 2020 Market Outlook

Market Outlook What an amazing unexpected year of performance in 2019! Was the 2018 Tax Cut and Jobs Act a gift which kept giving in 2019? While that may be a difficult question to quantify, we are clearly seeing the powerful tailwinds of low interest rates, low inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and sustained GDP growth.…

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October 2019 Market Outlook

Market Outlook A widely used Latin phrase in Europe, “Quo Vadis?” (Where are you going?), is a very timely question as we head into the final quarter of 2019.  The long running bull market in both equities and fixed income continues to chug along with U.S. equities up +20% (S&P 500 Index) through mid-October and…

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July 2019 Market Outlook

Market Outlook In July the U.S. economic expansion officially became the longest in U.S. history as it crossed its 10-year anniversary.  As we pointed out in last quarter’s newsletter, the core economic vital signs for the U.S. suggest that the expansion has further to run with very few road bumps on the horizon to caution…

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April 2019 Market Outlook

Market Outlook The rally in global equity markets, particularly in the U.S., during the first quarter of this year has been stunning.  The move down and back up to current levels in the S&P 500, from the fourth quarter of 2018 through April 2019, represents an approximate 45% movement in equity prices over a five-month…

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January 2019 Market Outlook

Market Outlook What is it about the global economic landscape, and the U.S. equity markets, that would send the S&P 500 down – 13.52% in the fourth quarter of 2018 only to rebound by + 4.20% over the first ten trading days of the new year?  Can we glean any insights that would help us…

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October 2018 Market Outlook

Market Outlook Equity market volatility in October is almost as seasonally reliable as the colorful fall foliage, though certainly not as enjoyable.  Recent moves down in U.S. equity markets of -5% to –7% raise the important question of whether this is the beginning of a bear market or simply a market correction.  Over the past…

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July 2018 Market Outlook

Market Outlook Discerning the key factors driving the current “late cycle” economy is a bit like following cycling team race strategies in the annual Tour de France.  Everything is a bit nuanced and appears, at times, chaotic to the untrained observer.  Please indulge us as we celebrate the annual summer Grand Tour and apply a…

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April 2018 Market Outlook

Market Outlook Well, the transition from the “Plough Horse Economy” to the “Goldilocks Phase”, which we referenced in our January newsletter, appears to have shifted quickly to “Late Cycle Stimulus” concerns.  This shift, prompted by the passage of the February Congressional Budget (in which spending caps were raised by $300 billion) on the heels of…

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